Economic outcomes measurement, evaluation and advisory
Why
A green or circular economy project often needs to be defended, supported, sometimes more than others. The quantitative demonstration of economic outcomes and of the impact on jobs or local income can largely contribute to this support, and overcome many reluctances. Such highlighting is an essential tool for promotion or communication. It secures the widest local support and often proves critical for execution.
Our contribution
We measure, study and interpret future economic outcomes of green and circular initiatives. We quantify jobs, wages, sales revenue, value added, local and national tax, direct, indirect (i.e. through suppliers) and induced (spending induced by wages). We link and compare figures to relevant local data, quantifying for instance contribution to (industrial) employment, added value, and local budgets. We also assess structural, long-term regional development impacts (innovation, skills, ecosystems vitality) and advise on their enhancement. We also assess post-implementation impacts with the same approach.
Methodology
We carefully map value chains and single out all new operations resulting from the project. We collect quantitative data from company leaders and input them into our proprietary model. Where relevant we do the same for activity displacement, so that outcomes are net. We clearly lay out and interpret results, analyse possible effects of various scenarios. To assess long-term structural impacts, we lead qualitative interviews with the same operators as well as with professional and innovation networks, accelerators and regional development agencies, which have a panoramic view of local industry and always pertinent perspectives.
We are well equipped for primary data (i.e. non public) research and collection, despite possible challenges. Our vast experience of interviews (328 conducted, 300+ hours, including 209 with businesses) and of cooperation with private sector executives is a great facilitator. Plentiful connections established in nine years of activity are another advantage.
For example
For the ECOCIR project (state railway works company), we quantified the local economic outcomes of a platform recovering the company’s construction and demolition residues: direct and indirect economic outcomes (jobs, wages, revenue, value added, tax), compared with local benchmarks such as the contribution to industrial employment or industrial value added. We also assessed long-term regional development impacts (innovation capacities, skills, ecosystems) and recommended ways to optimise them. Our exchanges with local players built momentum around the project, and evidencing the local outcomes secured wide support for it.
For the local implementation of a national urban renovation plan in Lille* (CIRCULAR URBAN RENOVATIONS – STAGE 1, for a social housing developers consortium), we singled out the three considered value chains (structural work, finishing work, furnishing). We then interrogated local operators on each of these stages and so produced quantitative primary data and results as close as possible from local realities. We compared those to local benchmarks, for instance through measuring contribution to local job creation, to industrial income, or to selected local public spending. Objectifying economic gains due to the project was instrumental in securing validation and support from local authorities and elected officials.
* Local roll-out of the New National Urban Renewal Programme: 45 site in Greater Lille, 2,600 dwellings, 450,000 t demolished
For the CIRCULAR URBAN RENOVATIONS – STAGE 2 project (social housing developers consortium: four North of France providers including Vilogia and Lille Métropole Habitat), we introduced the approach through major techno-economic shifts, and its articulation with the green-digital transition. We brought out the project’s lasting contribution to these shifts while stressing their systemic dimension.
